Looking for alternative energy?

Printed by The Nation on September 12, 2005

by Monem Farooqi

Pakistan needs a well thought out energy strategy aiming to increase the ratio of hydropower, gas, coal and the nuclear power in the overall energy mix in a time when the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources is woefully short of skills and expertise. The ministry does not have a technical and business cell of petroleum professionals The country cannot import gas directly, at least in the next five years, from Iran and other sources due to lack of necessary infrastructure.
The record of successive governments for developing alternate sources of energy has been dismal. The Directorate General for Alternate Energy Resources has simply failed in set up a decent solar energy project to provide electricity in any village of the country.

To develop effective, self-sustaining, operational and viable alternate energy resource projects, actions are badly required not mere words. With economic growth projected at about seven per cent a year, Pakistan expects demand for gas to rise from 3.8bn cu ft per day now - covered by domestic supply - to 8bn cu ft by 2020. Failing a big gas find, demand would outstrip domestic supply by 2010.

The Prime Minister’s statement, during meeting he chaired to discuss future energy needs of the country on Aug.18 that the government would “encourage” use of alternate energy resources and that intensive exploration for gas within the country would be undertaken. The statement no doubt, amused many energy and petroleum professionals. 
However, the question arises here that has the PM or his minister for petroleum resolved the chronic access problem to the Kohlo Block and the adjoining Marri/Bugti areas? Is there any authentic geological and geo-physical data bank with the requisite quality database?

Ahmad Waqar, secretary for petroleum, says alternative energy sources such as furnace oil are twice as expensive. Gas accounts for about half of Pakistan’s energy, with 30 per cent coming from oil and 20 per cent from coal, hydroelectricity and nuclear power.

Pakistani officials and independent analysts say a pipeline that would carry gas from Iran to India, via Pakistan - estimated to cost about $4.5bn - is the most logistically viable of three possible projects.
However, the country cannot import gas directly, at least in the next five years, from Iran and other sources following the lack of necessary infrastructure.

The sharp increase in energy prices during 2000-2001 served as a reminder of the global dependence on diminishing supplies of fossil fuels. Although oil and natural gas prices have eased somewhat from their peaks, consumers remain vulnerable to fluctuations in price and supply. Increased demands for electricity and widespread blackouts in California have heightened concerns about the security of energy supplies. 

Although the response of the governments world wide have been to promote increased production of oil, coal and nuclear energy, this strategy should be seen as a short-term option with unacceptable long-term consequences. The recent ratification of a modified version of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol is the first international binding treaty to mitigate global warming by reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. A dedicated effort to development and promote clean sources of alternative energy would go a long way towards safeguarding the planet’s energy and environmental security. 

Bio-fuels derived from perennial grass crops are consistent with Canada’s commitments to reduce ghg emissions by 5.2 per cent from 1990 levels by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (unfccc, 1997). Energy obtained from perennial plant biomass is essentially carbon neutral because carbon released during combustion is effectively recycled into plant tissues through photosynthesis. The only net loading of CO2 into the atmosphere takes place during production and processing operations. Some crops may also lead to carbon sequestration in the soil creating a carbon sinks (Zan et al., 2001).

Wood, wood chips, and more recently wood pellets, are the most traditional and ubiquitous biofuels. Innovations in the production of corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel from oilseeds, as well as the combustion of crop residues such as straw, mark significant advances in biofuel development. More recently, REAP-Canada has pioneered the development of biofuel pellets made from switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) for use in space heating applications. Warm season grasses such as switchgrass can be grown in many parts of North America at a cost of $3-4/GigaJoule (gj). Between 100-250 gj (the heat contained in 15-40 barrels of heating oil) can be harvested per hectare of farmland and about 88 per cent of the original energy in a switchgrass crop can be captured as usable heat (Samson et al., 2000). Switchgrass pellet heating systems represent a tremendous opportunity to displace high grade energy forms such as natural gas, heating oil and electricity with a low grade, clean burning fuel. Large sections of the enormous North American agricultural land base are suited to producing herbaceous feedstocks.

The comparative advantage of grass biofuels

Densification of wood residues into pellets for space and water heating has been used in Europe since the 1970s. Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Spain and Portugal, are currently export markets for Canadian wood pellet processors. Densification creates a clean burning, convenient and concentrated fuel from fibrous waste. Wood pellet heating systems are considered an essential component of European plans to reduce ghg emissions and are targeted by incentive programs in countries such as Germany, Norway and Sweden. 

However, further expansion is hampered by shrinking supplies of wood residues, partly a result of the more efficient use of the waste fraction of delivered roundwood. For example, between 1988 and 1998, the volume of wood residues declined by almost 50 per cent across Canada with the exception of Quebec. The bulk of residues in Quebec are bark, an inferior product due to a high ash content. Many pellet manufacturers believe the declining feedstock supply is critical and that further expansion of the pellet fuel industry depends on developing a sustainable, dedicated supply of feedstock (Greg Gillepsie, personal communication).

However in Pakistan, no consideration has been given to desalinate seawater, using simple solar panels, to provide drinking water to any of the water starved coastal villages. Not a single village in Pakistan has a biogas plant, which can supply electricity to a small rural settlement. Similarly, there is no cluster of windmills in the coastal belt to harness wind energy to generate electricity.

Production and Consumption of Ethanol and Gasol in Pakistan

Substitution of Petroleum by ethanol as a motor fuel has already gained universal recognition. Several countries of the world have successfully developed their fuel Ethanol program .At present Brazil is a leading country with an annual production capacity of 12-14 billion liters and a share of 36 per cent in world?s production followed by USA having an annual production capacity of 8-10 billion liters with a share of 26 per cent, China with an annual production capacity of 3.6 billion liters with a share of 9.5 per cent while EU’s annual production capacity is 2.5 billion liters having a share of 6.5 per cent. Other countries, which also have developed a fuel Ethanol program are Sweden, India, Canada, Australia, and Thailand.

In Brazil Ethanol has effectively taken over a major share of auto fuel consumption and now 20-26 per cent of fuel ethanol is blended with petrol. Brazil produce?s around 14 billion liters of ethanol, of which 13 billion liters is used domestically. Around 50-55 per cent of cane is used directly to produce ethanol while the balance is used to produce sugar. Brazil has also used flex fuel car, which runs on the fuel ethanol blended with petrol or 100 per cent of hydrous (industrial alcohol). The sale of flex fuel cars grew by 450 per cent during last year? In USA ethanol production has also increased by 48 per cent in 2003-2004 and expected to increase to 90 per cent by year 2012.Other regional countries fuel ethanol program are as under:

In China fuel ethanol target for the year 2010 is 2.0 billion Liters, in India fuel ethanol production reached to 1.3 billion out of 2.82 billion installed capacity and five per cent blending has been made mandatory by the government. Japan gasoline mixing with of three per cent ethanol is under trial production and Thailand 10 per cent Ethanol blending with gasoline allowed in January 2005.

At present global ethanol production is 38 billion liters and the sector has been growing at the rate of three per cent in 2000, seven per cent in 2001, nine per cent in 2002 and 14 per cent in 2003 showing an increasing tendency of conversion on renewable energy.

Prospects of Fuel Ethanol in Pakistan

Production of Molasses remained between 1.3 million tones to 2.1 million tones during last ten years (1994-2004), while export of molasses remained between 0.703 million tones to 1.748 million tones. Apart from export of substantial quantities of molasses from Pakistan, production of alcohol from molasses comprises the only major value-added product manufactured in the country.

Major portion of alcohol is being exported which has increased from 6 million Ltr in 1994-95 to 100.351 million Ltr (80,285 M.Tons) in 2003-04. Other domestic consumption of Alcohol includes usage in Varnishes, Paints, Cosmetics, medicines, Explosives, Acetic Acid, Ethyl acetate, Butyl Acetate, Acetone, Acetic Anhydride, Acetate yarn, Paper, Paint, Leather. Distillery industry normally operates for 250 days and with the alcohol production efficiency of 250 liters per ton of molasses:

Presently Pakistan imports petroleum products of $3.1 billion, which has made a significant contribution to the rising trade deficit of the country. It is high time to explore other options for fuel requirement of the country. Pakistan's expected consumption of petrol in the year 2005-06 would be around 1.6 million tons, if the country starts blending with the ratio of 10 per cent, we may have additional fuel of 160,000 tons in shape of Ethanol, which can be increased further in addition of blending ratio to 20per cent and then higher gradually.